Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 0.005220 0.005750 0.006323 0.006991 0.007751 0.008593 0.009599
2025-10-12 0.004416 0.005158 0.006025 0.007120 0.008481 0.010133 0.012319
2025-10-19 0.003868 0.004691 0.005699 0.007043 0.008816 0.011115 0.014391
2025-10-26 0.003487 0.004353 0.005455 0.006989 0.009115 0.012027 0.016451
2025-11-02 0.003169 0.004051 0.005208 0.006877 0.009287 0.012750 0.018316
2025-11-09 0.002959 0.003864 0.005086 0.006907 0.009640 0.013750 0.020735
2025-11-16 0.002750 0.003656 0.004910 0.006831 0.009816 0.014487 0.022835
2025-11-23 0.002546 0.003437 0.004696 0.006672 0.009834 0.014962 0.024553
2025-11-30 0.002432 0.003336 0.004640 0.006742 0.010214 0.016068 0.027582
2025-12-07 0.002370 0.003304 0.004684 0.006966 0.010866 0.017721 0.031969
2025-12-14 0.002234 0.003153 0.004530 0.006858 0.010934 0.018332 0.034384
2025-12-21 0.002104 0.003001 0.004366 0.006713 0.010920 0.018782 0.036539
2025-12-28 0.002007 0.002898 0.004278 0.006703 0.011170 0.019819 0.040344
2026-01-04 0.001943 0.002844 0.004266 0.006824 0.011682 0.021473 0.046076
2026-01-11 0.001847 0.002733 0.004151 0.006750 0.011811 0.022347 0.050111
2026-01-18 0.001764 0.002636 0.004054 0.006700 0.011975 0.023321 0.054693
2026-01-25 0.001678 0.002531 0.003934 0.006593 0.012012 0.024011 0.058686
2026-02-01 0.001622 0.002470 0.003887 0.006621 0.012331 0.025410 0.065233
2026-02-08 0.001554 0.002386 0.003793 0.006550 0.012428 0.026289 0.070464
2026-02-15 0.001478 0.002286 0.003664 0.006399 0.012333 0.026672 0.074197
2026-02-22 0.001441 0.002248 0.003644 0.006465 0.012733 0.028405 0.083320
2026-03-01 0.001426 0.002250 0.003696 0.006678 0.013498 0.031269 0.098003
2026-03-08 0.001368 0.002173 0.003599 0.006575 0.013499 0.032008 0.104587